Call Him Mr. President

His To Lose: Call him Mr. Lucky. Call him Mr. Opportunity. Call him Mr. Cool. Call him Mr. Smart. Get used to the idea of calling him Mr. President. The political deck is stacked in favor of Barack Obama winning the presidential election. Obama is dealt a winning hand on so many political measuring rods only a bolt of lightening in the form of a major terrorist attack on our cities could change the landscape. Thirty days before a general election is an eternity in political years. A month out, only Ronald Reagan charged from behind and won going away. John McCain is not Ronald Reagan. Although a Reagan disciple, McCain lacks the charisma and charm of the Great Communicator. The struggling economy is the foremost topic in voters' minds. They are angry at the Republican administration for betraying them. No matter how hard McCain tries, Democrats believe he cannot distance himself from Mr. Bush and his administration's failed policies and deceptions of the past eight years. Obama from the birth of his candidacy in February 2006 has hammered away for change in Washington, nullifying lobbyists and transforming into a bottom-up people powered pipeline. It was vague enough where people could read into it anything they so desired. Fact is the change message was nothing more than the oldest ever political slogan -- Throw the Rascals Out. During the campaign, Obama has managed to fill in the holes of his blank resume. His biggest gap was experience. He's demonstrated enough knowledge on foreign policy issues to mildly comfort and close that margin somewhat. His domestic agenda is populist liberal and highly suspect how to pay for it. But, it sounds good and positive perceptions usually trump. Obama offers hope whatever that might be. McCain offers tried conservative principles unfortunately violated by excessive spending and corruption in the ranks of government elected and appointed officials that spread to executives in the financial markets. It's turned into an election for Obama to lose and the Democratic Party is remarkably adept at that.
The dynamics: The Obama campaign has demonstrated phenomenal success raising records amount of money, primarily tapping small donations from people through the Internet. They spent the money wisely, first through TV ads portraying his remarkable rise to prominence for voters who never heard of him. Then they targeted key battleground media markets with ads that countered the onslaught of opposition ads. The financing helped create an effective support group of volunteers and staff in all 50 states. They were better organized, smarter, outnumbered and outworked their opposition, first the Hillary Clinton campaign and now the McCain troops. To inflate his base, Obama spearheaded a voter registration drive bringing a few million new voters into the process. Registered Democrat Party voters now exceed the Republicans in the vast majority of states. Obama's success Nov. 4 rides on how skillful his campaign can get the new enrollees to the polls. The luck factor? Just look at Ohio, the swing state in so many elections past the Democrats narrowly lost. The Ohio Supreme Court upheld its Secretary of State's interpretation allowing same day registration and voting. This allows Obama to tap into his second strongest constituency, college students who notoriously are enthusiastic but seldom vote. There are 24 college campuses in Ohio with Obama expected to make a clean sweep. The latest polls indicate Obama leading or tied in the three largest swing states -- Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. If he wins two of the three, he wins the election. These trends reflect a pattern difficult to turn around this late stage of the game. McCain is a touchdown behind with time running out and already thrown two hail Mary passes from his maverick arsenal. The last dynamic that needs to be addressed is the racial prejudice card among older white voters. The Yahoo/Ipsis Poll conducted by Stanford University researchers recently concluded that 6% of white voters would not vote for Obama because of cultural negatives they harbor against blacks. That's a significant handicap despite all the political negatives McCain must overcome. What's disconcerting is older whites outnumber Obama's base coalition of blacks, youth and the affluent by a comfortable margin and tend to vote in greater percentages. Not for Obama's sake but for America's, let racism turn into an ostrich and hide its head in the ground.
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